NPD DisplaySearch Blog says that this year’s Black Friday is expected to be the catalyst that will lift tablets past notebooks in shipment volume for the first time in North America, a trend which NPD DisplaySearch expects to continue for the foreseeable future.
NPD DisplaySearch’s fourth quarter North American tablet shipment forecast is for 21.5 million units, far exceeding the 14.6 million notebooks and mini-notes that are expected to ship in the same period. Starting in 2013 in North America, tablet shipments are expected to exceed notebook shipments on an annual basis for the first time; 80 million tablets versus 63.8 million notebooks. On a worldwide basis, tablet shipments aren’t expected to out-ship notebooks until 2015, when 275.9 million tablets are projected to ship, as compared to 270 million notebooks.
NPD DisplaySearch points ti several factors that are enabling the North American tablet-friendly environment. First, over 70% of U.S. households already have PCs, putting the U.S. amongst the countries with highest PC penetration rates in the world, and making new PC purchases less necessary for consumers. Second, consumer preference has shifted from notebooks to tablets in the U.S., where there has been rapid growth of the tablet shipments (200% Y/Y or 38.2 million units in 2011, and 46%, or a projected 56 million, in 2012) coinciding with a rapid slowdown of notebook sales (-2% Y/Y or 54.9 million units in 2011, and 2%, or a projected 55.9 million units, in 2012) over the last two years. Thirdly, major players (i.e. Amazon, Google) started, focused, or emphasized tablet promotion and marketing efforts in the U.S.
NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that Black Friday and the ensuing holiday shopping season are expected to enhance an already prime opportunity for U.S. tablet adoption. Price cuts to already-declining tablet ASPs will be a major influence. The $199 price point has increasingly become the target to match or beat with the introductions of Google’s $199 Nexus 7 and Amazon’s Kindle Fire 7″. Another significant influence will be the increasing number of tablet options available to consumers this holiday season NPD DisplaySearch notes. Up to this point, the tablet market was predominantly made up of Apple’ 9.7″ iPad, which had about 65% market share in 2011. However, this holiday season there are 7″, 7.9″, 8.9″, 10.1″, and 10.6″ options among others.
Consequently, North America is expected to be the setting for the developing tablet market to overtake the established notebook market, and this Black Friday and the shopping season to follow will be the fuel to stoke the demand.
This Year’s Black Friday Crucial Market Test For Convertible Notebooks – Taiwan OEMs
Digitimes’ Aaron Lee and Joseph Tsai report that the Black Friday peak sales period starting from November 23 in the US is seen as a crucial market test for convertible notebooks – hybrid machines that combine features of ultrabooks and tablets – according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.
Lee and Tsai’s sources also suggest that the attraction of Windows 8 (or so they hope) as well as consumers’ acceptance of touchscreen features in notebook devices are expected to become major factors affecting demand for convertible notebooks.
Among the convertible notebooks, detachable types are expected to become the most popular models in the market.
For the full Digitimes report visit here: