Microsoft’s Shrinking Window For Tablets – Windows 8 Shows Promise, But It’s Late -Coming
Forrester Research’s J.P. Gownder, Sarah Rotman Epps in an Executive Summary of a new report say that Microsoft faces challenges in the tablet market due to its late entry. They note that while Windows 8 looks like a promising product for tablet computing, its release won’t come until sometime next year, and while Microsoft’s OEM partners are embracing the platform, consumer interest has plummeted during the past nine months.
The analysts suggest that Windows product strategists will be obliged to overcome several disadvantages associated with being a fifth mover in the tablet market, noting that product strategists in any industry have to evaluate their potential to be “fast followers”: Waiting too long to follow raises the bar your product must meet to compete.
In an accompanying blog, JP Gownder expands on the topic, noting that while Forrester is bullish on Windows 8 as a product for consumers, Microsoft’s adapting Windows in key ways that make it better suited to compete in the post-PC era, including a touch-first UI, an app marketplace, and the ability to run natively on SoC/ARM processors makes sense as we move deeper into an era when computing form factors are anticipated to reach far beyond traditional desktops and laptops.
However, he cautions that in their new report, Sarah Rotman Epps and he look at Windows 8 tablets, specifically, through their product strategy lens and see that on tablets, Windows 8 is going to be very late to the party.
Windows 8, the analysts observe, is at best a fifth-mover in line behind the iPad, Android tablets like the Samsung Galaxy Tab, HPs now-defunct webOS tablet, and the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet, and while Windows product strategists can learn from these products, other players have come a long way in executing and refining their products, with Apple, Samsung, and others having already launched second-generation products and likely will be into their third generation by the time Windows 8 launches.
Meanwhile, newer competitors like Amazon’s Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble’s Nook Tablet are reshaping consumer expectations in the market, driving down price points (and concomitant price expectations), and redefining what a tablet is.
Gownder observes that most significantly, consumer interest in Windows tablets is plummeting, noting that n Q1 2011, Windows the top choice of consumers, and that while no touch-first Windows tablets existed, 46% of U.S. consumers expressed desire for one. However, he says that by Q3 2011, the picture had changed dramatically: Windows was no longer No. 1 in choice preference, and interest among consumers dropped to 25%. Consequently, he contends that Microsoft has missed the peak of consumer desire for a product they haven’t yet released.
Gownder/ Rotman-Epps Report Table Of Contents
• Windows 8, Though A Promising Product, Looks Increasingly Late To The Game
• Microsoft’s Product Strategy Must Compensate For A Two-Year Product Gap
What It Means
• “Fast Following” Requires Amping Up The Experience, Not Just The Features
• Supplemental Material
• Related Research Documents
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Consumer Interest In Windows 8 Tablets Slumps
The Register’s Tony Smith cites the Forrester Research report predicting that Windows 8-based tablets will have missed the boat by the time they become available in mid to late 2012, observing that while Nokia may be keen on Windows 8, and is developing a tablet based on the new Microsoft OS, but by the time it ships, Apple will have a third-generation iPad out – quite possibly with a 2048 x 1536 display and a quad-core processor – and updated Android tablets running Ice Cream Sandwich and definitely sporting five-core CPUs – Nvidia’s Tegra 3, to be precise – will be out. Smith also notes that DisplaySearch forecasts made in October predict that even by 2017, Windows 8 will account for just 8.8 percent of the tablet market.
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